7. The Future: Our Cities, Towns and Neighbourhoods After 2000

The world is undergoing an era of unparalleled urban transition, as urban populations grow by 3.8 per cent a year. Cities and towns are expanding by a million people a week. This growth is particularly visible in developing countries. Urban areas will hold more than half the world's entire population within a decade. By 2020, 25 years ahead, approximately 3.6 billion people will live in urban areas compared to 3 billion in rural areas 26. By that time in South Africa, over 20 million additional people may have to be supported in our cities and towns.

The Urban Strategy set forward in this document will prepare South Africa for urban growth on this scale. This future begins now. The investment made in the cities and towns over the next five years will crucially affect their structure and functioning as well as their capacity to accommodate and manage what is inevitable future growth.

This document should be regarded as the first step in the formulation and implementation of South Africa's Urban Strategy. The strategy must be refined and further developed in a mutual learning process between government and citizens of the cities and towns. Monitoring and evaluating the efficacy of the strategy in the terms of its stated goals will therefore be crucial. Key performance indicators will be developed and utilised to this end. Information systems will be rapidly upgraded to permit truly integrated development planning and budgeting. In these ways, the ability to adjust both policies and programmes in the light of experience will be greatly enhanced.

Moreover, policy makers at all levels, drawing on the experience of implementation, have the responsibility of communicating both their intentions and the lessons of experience to the citizens of cities and towns. The urban challenge is simply too vast and too important to be left to the 'experts" alone. The changes wrenching the urban areas and the steps being taken by the Government of National Unity to remake cities and towns must be understood as widely as possible so as to facilitate true and widespread participation in the urban reconstruction and development process.

In this way, starting today, together we will create the just and productive cities of tomorrow.

THE FUTURE

  • More compact cities and towns

  • Some apartheid settlements will be phase out

  • But some will over time be integrated into regional economies

  • But some will over time be integrated into regional economies

  • Greater equity in terms of service delivery and access to employment, commerce and services

  • Sustainable urban development

  • Mere efficient cities and faster economic growth

  • Diminishing urban poverty


End Notes

  1. Urbanisation is the process by which an increasing proportion of 4 country's population is concentrated in its urban areas through both natural increase and in-migration. South Africa's current urbanisation rate is estimated at anywhere between three per cent and five per cent per annum, making for an urban population of between 36 and 42 million by 2010.
  2. South Africa's cities are more than ever strategic sites in a transnationalised production system.

  3. Roy Adams, "Urban Visions, Urban Realities," in Town and Country Planning Summer School Proceedings, 1994.

  4. The aim must be urban sustainability. In short, and to Use 4 broad definition, such sustainability requires that urban development including the billions of rands of investment shortly upcoming in South Africa's cities, must meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

  5. The classification adopted here is used by the United Nations in the developing world. The existence of other categories in the South African situation must be noted. Denser settlements like Bushbuckridge are typically areas of population resettlement under apartheid that now effectively function as urban areas - but are lacking in the corresponding urban facilities. The urban settlement pattern is also marked by the presence of one extended metropolitan region: the province of Gauteng. This area, formerly the Pretoria-Witwatersrand-Vaal Region often incorrectly characterised as 4 single metropolitan area, concentrates a fifth of the country's population and about 40% of its economic activity.

    At present, several different classifications are used for South Africa's urban sector by analysts and planners, creating uncertainty and confusion. This is compounded by new demarcations for provincial and local or metropolitan area boundaries. To promote definitional consistency for information and planning systems, government is resolved to provide a uniform classification system for the country's Metropolitan areas, Cities, and towns. As a Matter of urgency, an intergovernmental task team will be appointed under the auspices of the Urban Development Task team to investigate urban classification systems in the light of South African realities and to make recommendations for South Africa's urban sector.

  6. Vanessa Watson for example, advises that maximum choice be provided in terms of housing arrangements and tenure, given the existence of circular migration. See 'A Framework For An Urban Management Policy for South Africa," Submission to Habitat II Process, 1994.

    Recent research in Bekkersdal on the western fringes of the Witwatersrand, indicates that a high proportion of informal settlement and backyard shack dwellers (47 and 21 per cent respectively) continue to maintain rural households. See 'Some Social Dynamics Concerning Urbanisation ad Homelessness in Bokkendal (Westonaria) Owan Crankshaw submission by Human Sciences Research Council and Centre for Policy Studies to Habitat II Process, 1994.

  7. See Outside the Metropolis: The Future of South Africa's Secondary Cities. Urban Foundation Research Series 9, August 1994.

  8. David Dewar writes.

    Paradoxically, and most importantly in South Africa, the relative economic decline of many small towns has not been accompanied by a population decline. On the contrary, political uncertainties and, more particularly, a loss of jobs on the farms has led to a rapid growth of population in these towns, supplemented by people who cannot stay on the land, but who wish to or must remain in the local region Inevitably this growth has been accompanied by increasing levels by poverty, unemployment and inequality. The situation demands an active policy response.

    "Reconstructing the South African countryside: The small towns, "Development Southern Africa, 11, 3, 1994, p.354.

    Such problems cannot, of course, be seen in isolation. As a recent report puts it,

    Poverty, land dispossession, overcrowded conditions on allocated land, low agricultural productivity and drought have all forced people from the rural areas to the cities, in hope of a better life.

    Environment, Reconstruction and Development in the New South Africa, The International Development Research Centre, Johannesburg, 1994, p.58.

  9. The Urban Foundation estimate of 7 million shack dwellers made in the early 1990s is still widely accepted More recent statistics demonstrate that in KwaZulu Natal alone, 2,420,000 people, a quarter of the overall population and close to half of the urban population, live in informal settlements. See Here to Stay: Informal Settlements in KmaZulu-Natal. Doug Hindson and Jeff McCarthy, eds., Indicator Press, Dalbridge, 1994, p.3.

  10. Industrial estates built adjacent to townships during the postwar boom in manufacturing, like Wadeville and Alrode on the East Rand, are a sometime exception.

  11. Briefly, apartheid planning superimposed racial division over the idealised land use categories of the model, and enforced and administered the segregations so created.

  12. All of these forces are often seen as acting primarily (or even exlusively) in the developed world. But see Cohen, "Cities and the Prospects of Nations", Michael Cohen, Address to Cities and the New Global Economy Conference, Melbourne, 1994. op cit, and Alan Gilbert, Third World Cities. The Changing National Settlement System, Urban Studies 30, 415, 1.9.93, amongst many other accounts. As Gilbert writes:

    suburbanisation and spatial deconcentration have begun to create a more polycentric form of metropolitan development. This shift began a number of years ago, but is now occurring on much larger scale. Such deconcentrated patterns of industrial and residential development have emerged extensively around major cities such as Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Seoul and Kuala Lumpur (p. 721).

  13. In responding to these changes, it is appropriate to take the advice of one analyst of the contemporary city. What the planner cannot do is cut across the direction of events. The only plausible strategy is to harness the dynamics of development to move things in the direction that you want. For the planner or the architect to ignore the currents that are shaping the city is clearly futile. The 100 Mile City, Deyan Sudjic Andre Deutsch Limited, London, 1992, p. 338.

  14. The Gauteng extended metropolitan region, for example, is rapidly approaching the size of the developing world's megacities, which are characterised by populations of ten million and above.

  15. The researchers describe "a complex process of movement between rural and urban areas and within urban areas" and, accordingly, "the development of household networks across space as families seek to secure survival by combining a range of opportunities offered by different locales." Hindson and McCarthy, op cit, p. 14,p. 15.

  16. Proposals for the Content of A Spatial Development Framework for the Cape Metropolitan Area, Town Planning Branch, City Planner's Department, Cape Town City Council, September 1994.

  17. Sprawl is notoriously difficult to define. One attempt, synthesised from the planning literature is:

    Unplanned, uncontrolled, and uncoordinated single-use development that does not provide for an attractive or functional mix of uses and/or is not functionally related to surrounding land uses, and which variously appears as low-density, ribbon or strip, scattered, leap-frog, or isolated development.

    Arthur C. Nelson, letter to Planning, September 1994, p.33.

    Sprawl in this definition does not equate necessarily to all low-density development and/or dispersal. As another planner argues,

    in certain situations - and with true planning - dispersed settlement can actually have beneficial consequences. Sprawl is like cholesterol. There is bad sprawl and good sprawl. Its effects depend on the designers, planners, developers and public officials involved. As with cholesterol, moderation is the key.

    The issue is not whether should be dispersed or not - but whether it is ecologically sound. Both high and low-density settlements are possible, and probably desirable, if done with quality, equity, and environmental sensitivity.

    "Sprawl Can Be Good," Frederick Steiner, Planning, July 1994, 14, p. 17.

  18. As Andrew Steer, director of the World Bank's environmental department, put it recently, 'We're at sort of a crossroads. We could be overwhelmed." Others admit that "attempting to redirect growth patterns at the regional scales is fraught with difficulties and complexities, "as one analyst concluded for the Seattle area's King County, a planning innovator. See "No Easy Answers In King County, Washington", Douglas R. Porter, Urban Land, July 1994, p.35.

  19. The phrase "interwoven destinies" is used by United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Henry Cisneros. In the words of a recent German Marshall Fund of the United States report, successful urban areas will be those "that position themselves based on their strengths to compete economically in the global economy and find ways to bring city and suburb together in a regional alliance."

  20. The purpose of the Development and Planning Commission is to investigate and report on the more thorough and longer-term reforms needed in the planning field, including topics such as land tenure, planning instruments and land use controls, survey methods, and land assembly and release. Provision is also made for provincial commissions.

    Provincial tribunals will be responsible for government approvals for land development under the proposed Act, and will permit faster development decision-making, the resolving of conflicts between stakeholders, and greater community involvement in land development. The bodies will be staffed from the public service and outside land development experts. RDP funding for their operation, which should be used to leverage further funding, is envisaged for the 1095/96 financial year.

  21. In the words of two planners, infrastructure should be seen a the systematic framework which underpins a community's ability to fulfill its mission of providing 4 base for its citizens to be productive and to nurture social equity." William Morrish and Catherine Brown, quoted in Mary McNeil "The Changing Nature of Infrastructure," The Urban Age 1,3, Spring 1993, p.4-

  22. Cohen, op cit. See particularly "Wealth, Health and the Urban Household. Weighing Environmental Burdens in Jakarta, Accra 4nd Sao Paulo," Environment, 36, 4, July/August To use just one South African example of environmental hazard, recent press reports state that the bacterial count in the Jukskei River flowing through Alexandra is 12 million per 100ml of water. The normal count for water for recreational purposes should be 200 (The Star, February 1, 1995, p.3).

  23. South Africa's rates of violent crime - murder rape, assault, and so on - are particularly appalling. The murder rate, for example, at 60 per 100,000 of the population(in 1992) is six times the rate of the United State. Our large metropolitan areas rival those of Brazil as the most violent in the world. See "Crime: Cold comfort," Financial Mail December 2, 1994, p.47.

  24. As Cohen argues, "social cohesion breaks down the face of competition for jobs, housing, education, and other prerequisites for social welfare" (op cit, p.7) Certainly in recent years our urban areas have seen immense and debilitating violence as residents contend with one another for scarce urban resources.

  25. As Swilling and Boya argue,

    The global shift from government (as noun) to governance (as verb) is related to the universal recognition that formations within civil society need to be empowered to share responsibility for governance and to this end the institutions of government need 4 new citizen-orientated management approach.

    "Local Transition and the Challenge of Sustainable Urban Development: The Greater Johannesburg Case," Mark Swilling and Laurence Boya, mimeo, 1994.

  26. The 1990 figures are 1.4 billion and 2.7 billion people respectively.


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