15 April 2004
INTRODUCTION
1 It's too early to make any definitive conclusions, but quite clearly, the trend reflects the fact that the overwhelming majority of South Africans have given the ANC a decisive mandate to implement programmes to fight poverty and create work. This decisive mandate is a critical foundation for the building of a people's contract to better the lives of all South Africans.
What are the major trends currently?
TRENDS IN ANC SUPPORT
2 The poor show confidence in the ANC:
In areas where counting within mainly working class and poor areas has taken place, the ANC is achieving overwhelming majorities of the same level or higher than in 1994 and 1999. This is an expression of confidence in the achievements of the ANC in the past ten years, as well as an assertion of hope and conviction that the programme of the ANC will further improve their lives.
3 Increasing diversity in ANC support:
As usually happens the counting of votes and confirmation of tallies starts in those areas with advanced infrastructure, mainly middle class areas. Though in these areas there is a large segment of workers and the poor, current trends indicate that the ANC is winning significant sectors of the middle strata including within white, Coloured and Indian communities - reflecting increasing unity of purpose among South Africans.
4 Overall level of ANC support destined to increase:
Given the character of most of the areas already counted, and the trends in working class and poor areas, it seems that the ANC percentage of the vote is bound to go higher. In fact, by this time during counting in 1999, the ANC's percentage was much lower.
5 Opposition parties fish from a shrinking pond:
Compared to the outcome of the last elections, and given the fact that the ANC is "trending" towards an increased majority, what is emerging from the performance of the opposition is that they are competing for a shrinking pool of support. This they seem to have realised, way into the election campaign when most of them turned on each other for the "rest of the votes".
TRENDS AMONG THE MAIN OPPOSITION PARTIES
6 Democratic Alliance:
Reflects mainly the traditional support base of the combined DP and NNP, but does not meet the actual total that these two parties had garnered in 1999. Given the areas already counted, it is quite clear that the DA would not meet the targets it had set itself (of about 20% for the DA and 30% combined with the IFP).
7 Inkatha Freedom Party:
Currently, more counting has happened in rural areas of KZN than the urban areas. Based on the experience of the past two elections, the balance at this stage of the counting would have favoured the IFP, with votes of close to 100% in some of these areas. The possible tally for the ANC in the urban areas should lift the ANC further and it may approach the late 40's in percentage terms.
8 New National Party:
There is an obvious reduction in the percentage vote for the NNP, including in "traditional support bases" in the Western Cape, Northern Cape and Free State provinces. Whether this reflects a continuing trend of decline since 1994 or lack of clarity in message is a matter of conjecture. Further analysis is needed on the residue of support it retains, reflecting an acceptance of the message of co-operation with the ANC.
9 Independent Democrats and UDM:
ID is a new party with gains linked in part to profile of the leader and a reputation that attaches itself to simplistic interpretations of parliamentary opposition. The gains seem to have derived mostly from the DA and the NNP. Question will need to be examined whether the message of acceptance of ANC policies and rejection of "opposition for opposition's sake" may have played a role in this regard.
The UDM is losing most of the support it gained in rural Eastern Cape and within the white community, nationally, in 1999. Will the ID experience the same phenomenon associated with the rise (and fall) of the UDM? One lesson from this experience is that a significant part of white support for the ID/UDM-types in fact may represent a transition in a long journey towards acceptance of the ANC.
GENERAL COMMENTS
10 The ANC profoundly appreciates the commitment shown by millions of South Africans to exercise their constitutional right to elect a government of their choice. We are humbled by the vote of confidence that they have shown in the country's democracy and in the ANC.
11 The professional and effective manner in which the IEC conducted the elections is to be commended.
More information: Smuts Ngonyama 082 569 2061