IDASA POLL REVEALS CRISIS IN NP ANC SUPPORT INCREASING

An opinion poll released by IDASA this weeks shows that the National Party is in severe crisis with support declining dramatically. While the ANC had a decrease in support in its first year in government, when voters had unrealistic expectations about the speed of transformation, the situation is now reversed with a significant increase in support since 1995. On the other hand, the NP, which showed a slight increase in its support between 1994 and 1995(in terms of people who would vote for the party, as opposed to party supporters) has suffered a dramatic decline in support since then.

The report states:

"Hamstrung by its apartheid history, the National Party has been racked by internal tensions and resignations... The party is increasingly becoming a regional party retreating to the Western Cape. Its withdrawal from the Government of National Unity ... the resignation of de Klerk..., the revelations of gross human rights abuses by NP-aligned security forces during the apartheid years, and the defection by ten NP councillors in the Pretoria City council have certainly not helped."

Highlights of the Survey

Changes in partisan support

This category deals with people who identify a particular party as "their" party, when asked if they think of themselves as close to any particular party.

• In 1994, 15 per cent of voters identified with the NP.

By 1997, this had fallen to 6 per cent.

• The proportion of voters who say they would vote for the NP has fallen from 15.9 per cent to 10.4 per cent (between 1994 and 1997).
• While the number of voters who identify the ANC as their party has dropped, the number of people who say they will vote for the ANC is roughly the same as it was in September 1994. The fact that the percentage of people who say they will vote for the ANC is much the same as it was in 1994 is particularly significant because all over the world the degree of support for a party in power tends to drop substantially in the middle of its term of office.
• ANC support has already increased from a low of 45.6 per cent in 1995, to 52.5 per cent in June this year.
• NP support has been declining steadily since 1994 and continues to decline.

Massive loss of support for NP crosses racial lines

The National Party has failed to maintain support in any sector of the population. It is haemorrhaging supporters from its two strongest groups of supporters, White and Coloured voters.

• In 1994, 52.8 per cent of Coloured voters declared their support for the National Party. By mid-1997, this had fallen to 27.7 per cent.
• ANC support in the Coloured community has increased from 14.9 per cent in 1995 to 24.5 per cent today.

Dramatic loss of support for the NP amongst Whites

• In 1994, 48.3 per cent of Whites supported the NP.
• Currently, NP support among Whites has plummeted to 18.8 per cent.

Provincial Findings

ANC stands to win the Western Cape!

The survey indicates that were an election held tomorrow, we would have a very good chance of winning the Western Cape. The loss of support for the NP amongst Coloured voters could tip the balance in this province. The proportion of voters who identified strongly with the NP (as supporters, as opposed to voters) has plummeted from 41.2 per cent to 19.1 per cent in the Western Cape between 1994 and 1997. The poll shows that if an election were held tomorrow support for an ANC provincial government would be 34.3 per cent, as opposed to 31.6 per cent for the Nats.

Loss of ANC support in the Northern Cape

This province, sadly, is the dark cloud on the horizon, where it seems the NP has gained massive support to our detriment.

ANC support holds firm in other provinces

The results for the rest of the country show that our support is growing from the low of 1995. Some provinces even show an increase in support over the 1994 survey results.

Where have all the NP Voters gone?

While the ANC has succeeded in rebuilding its support in terms of the proportion of voters who would vote for the party if an election were to be held tomorrow, the number of voters who identify the ANC as "their" party has declined. This indicates that we need to work hard to be rebuild our branches and build community contact through our constituency work so that our supporters identify strongly with our structures.

We must be aware that the voters who have left the NP have not come over to us but see themselves as independent. It is these voters that we must reach before the next election.

Key Political Messages

• As delivery speeds up and expectations become more realistic and the people of South Africa participate more fully in the democratic processes of transforming our nation and restoring the pride and dignity that apartheid destroyed, we can expect our support to grow.
• Voters who supported the NP at the last election recognise that the NP cannot reform itself to play a constructive role in the new South Africa.
• The NP will remain locked in the attitudes of the past. Its failure to elect a leader who is other than a white Afrikaner male reflects its inability to move with the times.