Fifteen Year Review
The ANC government recently released a Toward a Fifteen Year Review, an assessment of the impact of its programmes in relation to set targets, with a focus on the 2004 Election Manifesto and the 2004-2009 Medium Term Strategic Framework.
Through the review the ANC government is taking stock of how far it has gone in achieving the objective of improving the quality of life of all South Africans. The review assesses progress since the attainment of democracy. Through transformed institutions and new polices, the ANC government sought to align the country's development with the new democratic Constitution, dealing with the legacy of apartheid and integrating the country in a challenging global environment.
The review brings particular focus to the past five years, building on conclusions of Towards a Ten Year Review, published in 2003. The instruments of analysis have been sharpened by the refinement of a set of Development Indicators which provides government and the public with a framework for tracking movement towards the country's development objectives.
It draws on a wide range of research, within government and by outside experts and organisations. It uses the cumulative body of information produced by the regular reporting of government agencies as well as research especially commissioned for the review or for other current initiatives.
Towards a Fifteen Year Review is not only about taking stock of progress. For instance, it acknowledges areas such as weakening value system, increasing inequalities, high youth unemployment, poor quality of social services and economic exclusion as those that require serious and urgent attention. The Review admits that progress made, though commendable, is not sufficient.
It is equally about identifying shortcomings and challenges, the better to contribute to initiatives aimed at further improving the country's development efforts. It also takes into account new socio-economic trends, emanating from the transition, which imply some modification of trends observed in the Ten Year Review. The trends in question relate to household unbundling, persistence of two economies and internal migration which is compounded by cross-border migration.
The review takes a detailed look at the impact of government activities across the different clusters of government, including the special programmes and policies aimed at meeting the needs of women, children, persons with disabilities and young people. The picture it reveals combines progress with persisting and new challenges.
It takes into account major trends in our society and internationally, such as: changes in household size and structure; growth in the economically active population; migration; structural unemployment; social cohesion; inequality; state legitimacy; national leadership and social partnership; and the global context.
The main finding of the review is that, as we enter fifteen years of democracy, much has been done to eradicate the legacy of apartheid and build a new, just society; and that the foundations laid in the first ten years together with new initiatives since 2004 have enabled SA to notch up to a faster rate of growth and development.
However, the report says that this is not yet enough: the challenges identified five years ago have in the main proved more deep-seated than was recognised; and success has brought new challenges. The state has had to learn new ways of doing things as it implemented, but may not always have been decisive and flexible enough. The global environment is less favourable than expected.
Major trends in our society and beyond shape the terrain in which the state acts and affect the possibilities of what can be achieved. The review therefore revisits the socio-economic trends identified at the end of the first decade of freedom, and looks at new socio-economic dynamics. These include such matters as the unbundling of households, growth in the economically active population, migration, structural unemployment, social cohesion, inequality, legitimacy of the state, national leadership and social partnership, the global context and the evolving domestic and international policy context.
The review suggests that there is such a possibility, but that it depends on a number of conditions, including the agency of various social actors. Success will require a decisive state with higher levels of legitimacy, and a more cohesive society, together prepared to pursue a common vision and make the necessary adaptations and choices between priorities when the need arises.
Building democracy
In the governance sphere there has been great progress in democratic transformation of the state, in building institutions and systems, including innovative platforms for citizen participation. Much has been done to improve co-ordination in government and to create a legislative and policy framework for good governance.
In the social sphere there has been substantial overall improvement in people's lives through mainly well-targeted programmes to reduce poverty with regard to income, access to social services, and to assets like housing and land.
In many dimensions, ANC government has been instrumental in improving the lives of women, children, people with disabilities and youth. Legislation and institutional machinery puts government on track to meeting most of its constitutional obligations regarding vulnerable groups.
The households' headcount poverty rate at an arbitrary poverty line of R322 a month declined by five percentage points, from 53% in 1995 to 48% in 2005. At a lower poverty line of R174 a relatively similar decline in poverty was registered as income poverty declined by eight percentage points from about 31% to 23%.
However poverty is still a big challenge. Despite reduced income poverty and faster growth, income inequalities did not decrease and in some respects it increased. Among many households the continuing weaknesses and inequalities in human and social capabilities reproduces the cycle of poverty and dependency. But persistent inequalities reduce the impact of state action to reduce vulnerabilities especially regarding employment and violence. Employment of persons with disabilities in public and private sectors is less than it should be.
Improving state capacity requires attention to skills, standards, systems and institutions rather than just more resources. The trend of local protests indicates shortcomings in actual practice in participation platforms. The ANC government response to the experience of implementing the 2004 mandate has included some major mainly crosscutting initiatives in the past few years.
Integrative interventions such as AsgiSA, Joint Initiative for Priority Skills Acquisition (JIPSA), integrated crime strategy and revamp of the criminal justice system, and better alignment of planning and mandate.
In the economic sphere, the review demonstrates that the growth of our gross domestic product has averaged around 5% and that of gross domestic product per capita at 4% during 2004 and 2007. The rate of unemployment continues to decline, estimated at 23% in 2007 compared to almost 40% in the beginning of 2000s. Successful policy evolution in a changing environment has seen the country achieve and sustain macro-economic stability creating the climate for faster job-creating growth and economic reform.
The current confluence of negative indicators shows a need for faster removal of constraints to growth. Insufficient social partnership has limited the impact of polices. There is need for more attention to economic inclusion and for second economy interventions with mass impact rather than many small ones.
The Justice, Crime Prevention and Security cluster's polices and priorities are having an impact and are appropriate to the challenges. But the challenges have proved more difficult to deal with than anticipated, especially with regard to violent and organised crime and the need for integrated strategising and action across the criminal justice system.
Mobilisation of society to participate in fighting crime has been less than required and crime is impacting on other area of social endeavour the rule of law, the economy, public morale, and social cohesion.
Based on the review findings about the impact of the state and national and global trends, it argues that whatever is done going forward, the main elements of strategy would need to revolve around some core ideas: speeding up growth and transforming the economy; fighting poverty; building social cohesion and state legitimacy; international co-operation; and building an effective developmental state.
Towards the future
In looking towards the future the review identifies broad strategic thrusts rather than detailed programmes. It shows progress combined with persistent or new challenges. Whatever is done going forward, the main elements of strategy would need to revolve around some core ideas.
Faster and shared growth is essential for reducing unemployment and poverty. In turn, the country's productive capacity needs to be improved so we can grow faster, absorb more labour including people with less skill, ensure competition, increase exports and ensure thriving conditions for small and micro-enterprises. There is also a need to develop second economy programmes that have a mass impact.
There will be a need to take account of a shift in the cost of energy and to protecting the environment. Measures to overcome poverty are central to the comprehensive anti poverty strategy that government is developing. Reducing unemployment is the key antipoverty measure. It requires removing whatever barriers are responsible for the country having a weak, small business sector and many able bodied people discouraged from seeking work.
Fighting poverty requires a special effort towards increasing people's chances of entering the labour market and/or setting up their own businesses. Education has enormous potential to break the cycle of poverty. Ensuring a harmonious society requires a reduction in inequality, through access to economic opportunities for all, better outcomes in education and skills training, and sustaining pro-poor government spending.
Key to social cohesion are strong and legitimate public institutions. That requires better service by the state, improved platforms for public participation and reducing crime and corruption. Similarly, society has the responsibility to respect and protect the legitimacy and authority of state institutions. Building a cohesive society also requires the promotion of solidarity and caring among all South Africans rather than the values of individualism. State and society need to work together in developing a new value system.
Much work has been done to strengthen partnerships across the world, especially in Africa and the South. This needs to continue, still prioritising Africa and the countries of the South while maintaining relationships with industrialised countries. Strengthening strategic partnerships and the deployment of resources to advance African development will help advance our national interests.
To do the things outlined above, the state would need to:
- be people centred and people driven;
- lead mobilisation of all sectors of society towards a common national agenda;
- implement programmes effectively and ensure that it has the right structures and systems for coordinated action;
- translate the broad goals and objectives in the Constitution and the electoral mandate into practical programmes and projects; and
- have stronger platforms for more regular interaction between citizens and their public representatives.
Achieving these broad elements of strategic posture will require specific initiatives and programmes as well as institutional changes and improvements. The concluding section of the review provides a list for consideration of a range of programmatic elements that can be implemented in various packages and sequenced in various ways depending on particular policy choices.
The experience of those developing countries which have achieved accelerated development in similarly challenging circumstances, emphasises that whilst all the initiatives and programmes would be critical in moving the country towards faster growth and development, success will require focus on a few catalytic initiatives as strategic priorities.
The review concludes with a choice to continue along a path that ensures some progress but barely dents the structural ills that have prevented the country moving as fast as it could. Or to achieve a big push based on a broad national consensus that drives the totality of national endeavours towards even better social impact. The latter would depend on a number of conditions including the agency of various social actors.
The ANC and its government encourage social partners and citizens at large not only to articulate their own views on these critical matters, but also to assess the impact of their own activities on social dynamics within our nation.
We all hope that the Fifteen Year Review will initiate a public debate and cohesion on all these issues. By building on what we have achieved, by acknowledging our shortcomings, by learning from experience - we will be able to make even further progress in improving the lives of our people. |