Development Indicators

Indications of a nation on the advance

The publication of the second edition of government's annual development indicators points to a nation that is on the advance towards a better life for its people. It describes both the progress that is being made in growing the economy, reducing poverty and tackling crime, as well as the challenges that still face the country. These include growing inequality, high unemployment and the effects of a global economic slowdown.

In releasing the indicators, The Presidency said: "This publication provides evidence-based pointers on the impact of government programmes on the lives of all South Africans. It is the second edition which updates data and refines indicators used in the 2007 publication. By publishing an annual set of development indicators, South Africa has joined a few countries which provide annual information on outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation of changes in society's quality of life,"

Economic growth and transformation

The indicators show the economy has been growing continuously since 1999 and accelerated towards the end of 2006. While the economy grew by 5.1% in 2007, slightly lower than the 5.4% recorded in 2006, it is still above the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGISA) targets of 4.5% per annum.

The foundation for future growth is being laid with increasing capital investment. However, positive and sustained growth trends are being challenged by:

• high inequality, meaning that the benefits of growth are not being equitably shared;
• negative global economic conditions, although South Africa's position is slightly strengthened by the fact that government debt has fallen from 43.5% in 1994 to 23% in 2007;
• negative and high current account deficit, high inflation and high interest rates.

The unemployment rate has decreased from 31.2% in March 2003 to 23% in September 2007 according to official statistics.

Poverty has been reduced, especially after 2000. In real terms, the income of the poorest has improved. But income inequality has increased, mainly because the income of the richest 10% of the population has increased at a faster rate.

The percentage of the population below R462 a month (2007 Rand prices) decreased from 58% in 2000 to 48% in 2005. Nine million people have been lifted out of poverty since 1996. More than 12 million people now receive social grants.

Since 1994, due to population growth, the number of households has increased by approximately four million. This, combined with a shift to smaller households sizes, has resulted in a marked increase in demand for social services. In spite of this pressure:

• 2.5 million subsidised houses have been completed or are in progress, providing shelter to some 8.8 million people;
• 87.2% of households have access to water at the RDP standard or above compared with 61% in 1994;
• 73% of households have access to sanitation; compared to 50% in 1994;
• 72% of households have access to electricity, compared to 51% in 1994.

The completion of over 74,000 land restitution claims brings that process near completion. On the other hand, progress in land redistribution has been slow, indicating that, at the current rate, the 30% target for 2014 would not be met.

Health and education

Different measures of life expectancy show it to have been falling since 2000, seemingly linked to HIV and AIDS. Immunisation coverage has reached 85%. The number of malaria cases has dropped markedly.

Trends in infant and child mortality are unclear - the Medical Research Council (MRC) and Health Systems Trust data point to an increase while Statistics South Africa and the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) show a decrease. At the same time, severe malnutrition for children under five years has been reduced by over 60%.

The rate of increase in HIV prevalence has slowed after its rapid growth in the 1990s. But there has been a rapid increase in tuberculosis (TB) cases since 2001.

Since the 1990s the parity of boy and girl learners has reached a balance, and gross enrolment at primary level is at about 98%. The matric pass rate had increased to a higher level between 1999 to 2003, and began to show a slight decline attributed in part to rising standards in the quality of exams relative to preparedness of learners to write such exams.

Although the number of matriculants with higher grade maths passes has increased since 2001, it is still low; while the number with standard grade passes has increased about eight times since 1997. Adult literacy rate has been steadily increasing.

This year's report provides new data on the number of women in local government councils, showing an increase from 28.2% in 2000 to about 40% in 2006.

During periods of national elections, surveys show greater levels of public confidence in general, including confidence in a happy future of all races: the decline in positive rating in the recent period may have been influenced by specific incidents during the survey period.

Race relations, at least at the level of perceptions, are under strain. Pride in being South African is still at high levels (78%), though it registered a decline in 2007 from 90% in the three years before that. South Africans are showing a strong sense of national identity, and race is receding as a primary form of self-definition.

Crime

The incidence of crime is generally decreasing but still at a high level. Trends in contact crime - interpersonal violence - have been slowly decreasing, but are still cause for concern.

Some categories of aggravated robberies (including business and household robberies), although very few compared to the total number of all crimes, demand specific attention due to the organised crime base they proceed from, and the fear they generate among citizens.

Our court system is not functioning optimally, with an increase in the number of withdrawals indicating that the relationship between detective work and prosecutors need attention. The prison population, after being reduced by remission programme in 2005, is growing again. Despite increasing numbers of cars, the accident rate is slowly coming down. New research by MRC shows that most accidents are alcohol-related.

Tourism in SA has grown rapidly since 1994 and continues to do so, with strong growth of 10.8% per year between 2004 and 2007. This has had a significant impact on employment creation, but the sector still needs further transformation so that the benefits of growth are more equitably shared.

Reflecting our growing relations with other countries in the 2007/08 financial year, South Africa had 121 missions abroad (45 in Africa), compared to 92 during 2001/02 financial year. The conclusion of several important multilateral agreements in support of South Africa's commitment to a rules-based international system has been a critical element of South Africa's international relations.

Our tax administration system has become much more effective and the number of tax payers has more than doubled since 1996. The number of qualified audit opinions from the Auditor-General is still at a concerning level.

Data on environmental indicators is limited, and the available estimates show that South Africa's greenhouse emissions have been increasing; possibly attributable to higher economic growth.

"Government intends to publish these data on an annual basis, the better to afford South Africans the information to track progress in social transformation and hold government accountable in the fulfilment of its mandate," The Presidency said.

Scorpions

Crime fighting capacity is being bolstered

George Fivaz and Gibson Njenje, respectively former national police commissioner and national intelligence agency deputy head, hit the nail on the head in their sober contribution to the discourse on the future of the Directorate of Special Operations, better known as Scorpions. In their input, "Admit it, the Scorpions failed" (Sunday Times, 13 July), the two ex security chiefs ask, "Has the DSO done the job for which it was established?".

This is a critical question some conveniently ignore in their narrow and shallow defence of the Scorpions. It is indeed refreshing to see politically unaligned individuals beginning to contribute soberly in this crucial public debate in the interest of what the ANC seeks to achieve: a strong and coordinated criminal justice system that is capacitated to effectively fight all kinds of crime within the country. This critique by the two writers emphasises the point we expressed in number of papers earlier this year.

The Scorpions were established more than seven years ago in line with the National Prosecuting Authority Amendment Act of 2000 with a clear mandate to, among other things, investigate and carry out any functions incidental to investigations; and where appropriate, institute criminal proceedings and carry out any necessary functions incidental to instituting criminal proceedings relating to other offences as determined by the President by proclamation in the Gazette, or offences or any criminal activity committed in an organised fashion.

With regard to the latter, the mandate of the Scorpions is not to deal with any other organised crime, but organised crime that is complex, complicated and transnational in nature, and therefore demands specialised skills and unique methodological approach.

Juxtaposing the legislative mandate of the Scorpions with its actual performance in the last seven years, one has no option but to concur fully with Fivaz and Njenje's conclusion that the unit "has not done the job that was its reason for existence: it has underperformed, it has divided rather than united, and it has left organised criminals as powerful as they were in 1999 - if not better able to resist policing efforts, and better resourced".

The so-called 85% prosecution rate, which serves as the backbone of the pro-Scorpions propaganda, is fallacious. If indeed the Scorpions had operated within its mandate, it is unlikely that it could have scored the high success rate it reported to Parliament in its report of the previous financial year. A simple audit points to the fact that the unit grossly misrepresented the figures and that about 90% of its cases were simple police matters that fell outside of its mandate.

The Head of the Unit, Leonard McCarthy, confessed to Parliament in March that a perception that the Scorpions performed better than the police was dangerous and misleading, as the so-called success rate was inflated. Consistent with Fivaz and Njenje's assertion that the 'success rate' is a consequence of the unit's practice of cherry picking cases with a potential for successful prosecution, McCarthy stated that the "indicator [85 percent] is really taken much too far in the public domain. It is not really a success indicator if you look at it in isolation, because the DSO has the ability to select its cases. I must also add that probably 25% of our cases are disposed of through plea-bargaining" (Sunday Independent, 2 March 2008).

The unit has failed in its mandate to uproot organised criminal activities. Most of crimes that make up the much touted 85% successful prosecution rate are petty crimes, which are a terrain of the South African Police Service (SAPS). This is what has resulted in turf wars and tensions between the DSO and the police. Indeed there is nothing complex in cases that the Scorpions have engaged in, such as those involving corrupt Road Accident Fund attorneys who submitted fraudulent claims; doctors robbing medical aid companies through false claims; the get-rich-quick Miracle 2000 pyramid scheme; and the 419 scam, in which individuals are promised large sums of money in exchange for upfront payment. All these cases and many others that the DSO dealt with in contravention of its legislated mandate and in clear conflict with the police, are not complex. The SAPS has dedicated and specialised units to deal with them.

The ANC's decision to incorporate the DSO into the police service is informed by the resolve to bolster the country's criminal justice system through the integration and coordination of all crime fighting structures of the state. This will help to address the weaknesses of coordination as well as existing, "divisions, interagency bitterness, resentment and rivalry" within the law enforcement agencies - as correctly observed by both Fivaz and Njenje. The creation of a single, seamless and strong crime fighting unit will also help to rid the unit of other malpractices that has tainted its character over the years. This includes the role of the Scorpions in the controversial Browse Mole report; illegally working with foreign intelligence agencies; employment of senior officials without security clearance; usage of outsourced companies for intelligence gathering and analysis without first putting them through vetting process; as well as conducting investigations through the media without first informing individuals under investigation.

The ANC and its government is committed to fighting all forms of crime, including organised crime and corruption. No revolutionary democratic project will be possible in any country without a significant reduction of crime and corruption, and maintenance of safety and security of all the people. Crime, in all its manifestations, contributes to perpetuation of poverty and poses an enormous threat to our national democratic trajectory. As emphasised by this year's January 8th Statement, we cannot allow criminality and lawlessness to undermine our hard-won freedoms and hinder the progress of our nation.

The ANC and its government must be lauded for intervening to ensure that our crime fighting mechanisms are bolstered.

** Nathi Mthethwa is a member of the ANC National Executive Committee.

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