ANC Today


Volume 4, No. 16 • 23—29 April 2004

THIS WEEK:


We salute all South Africans on a decade of freedom

This week our country and the peoples of the world will come together to celebrate our First Decade of Democracy. As an essential part of that democracy, we will also see the election and inauguration of the President of the Republic, the election of our provincial premiers, the election of the presiding officers of our national and provincial legislatures, and the formation of our national and provincial governments.

A large number of foreign dignitaries will be at the Union Buildings in Pretoria as we inaugurate the President and celebrate the 10th anniversary of freedom. We would like to take this opportunity warmly to welcome our distinguished guests and thank them for taking the time to honour us with their presence.

We are especially happy that they will be with us, because they come as representatives of the millions of people throughout the world who played such an important role in the struggle to defeat the system of apartheid. The victory we will celebrate on April 27 belongs as much to our people as it does to the peoples of the world, whose leaders will be with us in Tshwane.

When we congregate at the Union Buildings on Freedom Day, in other parts of our country, and at many venues throughout the world, we will not only celebrate the democratic victory of 1994.

We will also celebrate the progress that liberated South Africa has made in the struggle to eradicate the centuries-old legacy of colonialism and apartheid. We will together rejoice that, despite our past, our country has completed its First Decade of Liberation without having experienced any violent racial conflict. We will rejoice at the progress that has been made to build a non-racial society.

Our colonial and apartheid past made it inevitable that we could not speak of the genuine liberation of our people without talking about gender equality and the emancipation of women. Accordingly, when we celebrate the First Decade of Democracy, we will also rejoice at the progress that has been made towards the achievement of the goal of a non-sexist society.

The colonial and apartheid past to which we have referred deliberately sought the impoverishment of the black majority. The achievement of the objective of enriching, and securing a better life exclusively for the minority white population, necessarily required that the black majority should be denied all possibility to enjoy a decent standard of living.

Inevitably therefore, democratic South Africa could not but inherit a situation of endemic poverty for the millions of our people whom colonial and apartheid racism had defined as sub-human.

When we convene to celebrate our 10th anniversary, we will also rejoice at the progress we have made to reduce poverty and give material hope to our people that they have finally and irrevocably broken away from the long period of permanent despair. We will rejoice that the process of the eradication of poverty in our country has begun, resulting in the improvement of the quality of life of millions of our people.

Quite correctly, for 30 years the international community took action to isolate apartheid South Africa from the rest of the world. Acting as the enemy of all humanity, the apartheid regime engaged in a campaign of aggression, destabilisation and confrontation with all other countries except those that chose to be its ignoble allies. Our country thus became the pariah of the world, an agent for the propagation of racism, disrespect for human rights, conflict among the nations, instability and war.

When we come together to celebrate our First Decade of Democracy, we will also rejoice at the progress that has been made to reintegrate South Africa within the world community of nations. We will celebrate the contribution that democratic South Africa has made to help build a better world of democracy, peace and a shared prosperity in the rest of Africa and the world. We will rejoice that the erstwhile pariah has become a valued member among the forces that fight for a better life for the billions who inhabit our common globe.

Once again, we extend our deep-felt thanks to the governments and peoples of the world who will be represented at the Union Buildings on Freedom Day for the helping hand of solidarity they have extended to us over the last 10 years, which has helped us to make all these important advances.

The celebrations on April 27 will provide us with an opportunity to reiterate our pledge to all humanity that, conscious of what the peoples of the world hoped for when they joined together in the global struggle against apartheid, we will never abandon the path of democracy, peace, non-racism, non-sexism, shared prosperity, international solidarity and mutually beneficial cooperation among the nations.

Among the thousands who will celebrate our Decade of Democracy at the Union Buildings will be our Provincial Premiers who will be elected by the provincial legislatures on the 23rd and 26th of April. We congratulate all these patriots and wish them success in the important tasks they and their colleagues in our provincial governments have to accomplish over the next five years.

For the first time in the history of democratic South Africa, all our Premiers are cadres of the ANC. This has come about as a result of the overwhelming confidence in our movement demonstrated by the masses of our people during our General Elections. That same confidence places an enormous responsibility on these Premiers and all ANC cadres deployed in all spheres of government to ensure that we live up to the expectations of all our people.

The election of these Premiers will also make an important contribution to the effort to achieve gender equality in our country. The first Premiers of democratic South Africa elected in 1994 were all men. Since then, only one of our Provinces has had women Premiers. The elections that initiate our Second Decade of Liberation have given us the possibility significantly to increase the number of women Premiers, who now number 4 out of 9.

For the first time also, as an expression of our movement's firm commitment to build a non-racial South Africa, the ANC has appointed candidate Premiers drawn from a number of the racial groups that constitute our diverse population. This makes the firm statement that our movement will not waver from the pursuit of the objective of building a non-racial democracy.

These developments constitute an important signal of the determination of our movement further to consolidate our achievements in building a non-racial and non-sexist society, and ensure that we end our Second Decade of Liberation having made qualitatively new advances towards the realisation of the goals of non-racism and non-sexism that are so fundamental to the very character of our movement.

In addition, of course, our Constitution imposes an obligation on all of us to work for the achievement of these objectives. Accordingly, what our movement has done as it appointed its candidate Premiers demonstrates our commitment consistently to respond to the provisions of our fundamental law.

All these developments confirm that indeed our people have much to celebrate as they observe the end of our First Decade of Freedom and mark the beginning of the Second. They confirm the reality that our people did not struggle in vain. The sacrifices they made to liberate themselves from racist oppression and exploitation are being rewarded with the incremental realisation of the goal of a better life for all.

But even as we held our third General Elections and prepared for the celebration of our First Decade of Democracy, there were some who were intent on finding negatives that would serve to belittle our achievements and encourage doubts about our future.

The "Los Angeles Times" edition of April 15, for instance carried comments by some of our compatriots. It reported politics Professor Tom Lodge of the University of Witwatersrand as saying that the ANC was 'likely to dominate for 10 more years' and that "It's a matter of how much that party is prepared to play by the rules, and how much it's going to allow other parties to grow."

It also quotes Patrick Laurence, misleadingly described as a "political analyst of the independent Helen Suzman Foundation", as saying that 'the ANC 's commitment to democracy was untested because its majority has been so huge.' He went on to say: "The real test is when your majority is dwindling and there's a real prospect of becoming a minority. The test is whether the ruling party is prepared to yield power, and we don't know yet how they will react. It's quite sobering."

The "LA Times" also reported about a "white voter", Anjanette Phillips. It said 'Phillips recalled growing up under South Africa's last white president, Frederik W. de Klerk.' "Lots of people say, 'I wish I could have that government back'. It'll never be the same. We used to have open doors, open windows. Today, you have to be locked up in your house."

The newspaper ended the article with the following words: "Just days earlier, Phillips was in her car at a stoplight when someone smashed the passenger-side window and grabbled her handbag."

Naturally, readers of the "Los Angeles Times" not familiar with our country and its history would draw various negative conclusions from reading this article.

One of these would be that the future of democracy in our country is not assured. They would believe that the threat to democracy in our country emanates from the ANC, whose democratic credentials are evidently unknown and untested.

These readers would also come to the conclusion that the accession to power by the ANC has compromised the quality of life of our people, certainly as this relates to crime. They would also conclude that "lots of people" felt safer and preferred to live under the apartheid regime led by F.W. de Klerk, rather than an ANC democratic government.

One Jeremy Vine, described as "the BBC's Africa Correspondent" had written in 1999, soon after our General Elections of that year: "Then there is the magic of Nelson Mandela. His aura, as captivating in his own country as it is in other people's, has papered over the cracks. Corruption in national and provincial government, sky-rocketing crime, and above all, the grinding poverty - they all seem to become less important when Mr Mandela is asked about them. His saintly status has bullet-proofed his party (the ANC).

"With two-thirds, (the ANC) could change chunks of (the Constitution).With so much support (66%), the ANC can do what it likes. It will be accountable to the electors again in five years' time, but between now and then it can govern with cotton wool in its ears.The scale of the ANC's victory suggests that some of its support could be flaky. The party's only fear must be that one day, with Mr Mandela gone, the patience of its long-suffering supporters finally gives out."

When they heard this account 5 years ago, the BBC listeners who are not familiar with our country and its history would also have reached all manner of negative conclusions. Again they would have concluded that the quality of life under a democratically elected ANC government had taken a turn for the worse.

They would have concluded that the problems afflicting the masses of our people were caused by the ANC and that the absence of a popular rebellion against our movement, the collapse of its "flaky support", was due solely to the "magic of Nelson Mandela".

They would also have concluded that the ANC constituted a threat to democracy and therefore should be stopped from getting a two-thirds majority.

We do not know what Mr Vine said when the ANC obtained a two-thirds majority during the life of our second democratic parliament, and did not use this majority to "change chunks of the Constitution". We do not know what he will now say, given that the ANC has obtained almost 70% support from the electorate, despite its "flaky support".

What we know is that he and the others quoted by the "Los Angeles Times" seem to be averse to telling the truth that all the major problems confronting our people are part of the legacy of colonialism and apartheid. They are unwilling to tell the truth that in 10 years, the democratically elected ANC government has done more to improve the lives of all our people than all previous white minority regimes.

We also know that they are unwilling to tell the truth that both in 1999 and in 2004, the objectives spelt out in the ANC Manifestoes did not require any Constitutional amendments. Similarly, they will not and have not told the truth that the Manifestoes of the same opposition parties that accused the ANC of being a threat to democracy contained objectives that would necessitate Constitutional changes.

Neither will they tell the truth that it was the ANC that led the struggle for the victory of the democratic revolution in our country, the one political formation whose members and supporters sacrificed everything, including their lives, to achieve this outcome. They will not inform the public that the same ANC is the principal author of the Constitution and the architect of the democracy they allege the ANC threatens.

In 1999 and in 2004, the masses of our people demonstrated their firm rejection of all the lies that are told about their country and their movement. As they did in our first democratic elections of 1994, both in 1999 and in 2004, they made the clear statement that they will not be persuaded to turn their backs on the movement that led them as they fought for and achieved the priceless objective of freedom.

On Freedom Day, the peoples of the world will gather at the Union Buildings, in other parts of our country, and at many locations in the world, to salute the great masses of our people who led the assault that destroyed the apartheid system, and now grapple with the challenge to transform theirs into a democratic, peaceful, non-racial, non-sexist and prosperous country.

We wish all our people a Happy Freedom Day and success as they join in a people's contract to build the South Africa of their dream, and ours. The governments they elected in the 2004 General Elections will work with them as part of that people's contract, committed to serve all the people of South Africa.


 

Elections 2004

An expression of confidence from the poor

The 2004 election represented an overwhelming expression of confidence in the ANC from the black working class and poor. The increase in the ANC's share of the vote was truly national, gaining an increased proportion of the votes in every province.

Voter turnout was significantly higher in these communities than in other areas, and the ANC achieved overwhelming majorities of the same level or higher than in 1994 and 1999.

This performance is an expression of confidence in the achievements of the ANC in the past ten years, as well as an assertion of hope and conviction that the programmes of the ANC will further improve their lives.

The election campaign, which included the sterling efforts of thousands of campaign workers and volunteers, was a decisive factor in achieving almost all the goals the ANC set for itself at the beginning of the campaign. These included maximising voter turnout; increasing the ANC's majority in all legislatures; wining KwaZulu Natal and the Western Cape; and mobilising the youth and first time voters to vote.

The largest increase in the absolute number of votes cast for the ANC was in the Eastern Cape, followed by KwaZulu Natal, where ANC votes grew by 11.5 percent. The number of ANC voters also significantly increased in the Western Cape and the Northern Cape. In most other provinces the ANC achieved moderate growth in support.

Analysis at voting district level shows that the ANC's growth was diverse. At a national level, the ANC is the largest party among Coloureds and Indians. There has been a large swing towards the ANC in a number of Indian areas. For example, the ANC's vote in Lenasia increased from 40% in 1999 to 55% in 2004. Similar swings are reported in Laudium, Phoenix and Chatsworth.

Substantial levels of ANC support have been achieved in Coloured communities in urban areas. Results in the Northern and Western Cape indicate that the ANC has consolidated and advanced its support amongst the rural coloured community. It now has an overwhelming majority in these areas. Some whites came over to the side of the ANC, although the extent of this would require survey data to corroborate.

These results show that a greater number of South Africans, from across all communities, have responded positively to the ANC's call for a people's contract to build a better life for all. Voter turnout

The turnout of registered voters in the 2004 election was 77%, compared with 88% in the previous election. At the same time, there was a significant increase in the number of registered voters, from 18.2 million to 20.7 million.

The best way of understanding voter turnout is to view it as a proportion of registered voters, as opposed to viewing it as a proportion of the total population as measured in Census 2001. One of the reasons for this is that it is not possible to know with any degree of certainty how many people identified as being of voting age in the Census are in fact South African citizens who are eligible to vote.

The drop in turnout was particularly high in KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng. The Gauteng turnout, as well as the national average, would have been negatively affected by the holiday period, with many people either given a day off on 13 April or having taken extended leave. Further, in KwaZulu Natal more effective monitoring may have helped curtail inexplicable trends of past elections where turnout in stations without multi-party monitoring was always close to 100 percent, with a similar percentage vote for one party.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that a large number of youth did participate in the election, in contrast to the predictions of 'analysts'. However, more detailed information will be needed on this issue, as well as actual trends in registration within the 18-30 year-old category, before any clear conclusions can be made.

South Africa's turnout of registered voters, though down from 1999, remains very high by international standards. It reflects a firm commitment by South Africans to participate actively in the democratic process. As the ANC, we need to work hard to maintain that momentum, and ensure that South Africans remain active agents of their own liberation.

Opposition's shrinking pond

The number of votes cast for opposition parties declined substantially. The decline in the opposition votes been 1994 and 1999 has continued into 2004. While the DA's performance in 2004 looks good on paper, when compared to the DP's result in 1999, it has not managed to grow the 'anti-ANC' vote at all.

The combined total of the DP, NNP and Federal Alliance in 1999 amounted to 2.71 million votes. In 2004, the DA only netted 1.9 million votes. Even if we add the votes retained by the NNP (which by 2004 had shifted out of the 'fight back' camp), it is clear that this form of opposition has attracted far fewer votes.

Throughout the country, the DA's increase is largely at the expense of the NNP, from whom it has drawn White, Coloured and Indian supporters. There is little evidence of increases in DA African support beyond the level that used to support the NNP and its predecessor the NP. The DA failed to attain the full bloc of NNP votes that represent the potential limit of 'fight back ' politics, and in most provinces the DA's gains are much smaller than the NNP's losses.

There is a general national trend towards a less united, more diverse opposition. Outside Gauteng and the Western Cape, the DA has been unable to assert itself unambiguously as the largest opposition party. In both the Northern and Western Cape, the NNP remains a significant force in the coloured community, and the Independent Democrats (ID) emerged as the third largest party in many towns, undermining the DA's politics of "opposition for oppositions' sake".

Kwazulu Natal

Across KwaZulu Natal the overwhelmingly dominant trend was a sharp reduction in the turnout of IFP voters, combined with a significant increase in the ANC's vote. This resulted in significant reductions in the IFP's percentage share of the vote across the province.

Several factors can be offered in explanation of the ANC's important advance. The ANC's campaign and effective ANC delivery certainly played an important part in reaching out to rural voters and giving them confidence to vote ANC. The campaign in Durban managed to retain the ANC's mobilised support and extend it. The ANC increased its vote in the Ethekwini municipality by more than 80,000 votes compared with 1999.

Enhanced monitoring and effective security interventions created a climate in which fear was less present than in previous elections. Low turnout of IFP voters may have also been a reflection of undecided voters who have abandoned the IFP, but have not yet firmly chosen a political home. KwaZulu Natal was also the only province where the DA failed to match the performance of the DP in 1999, thus indicating that province's decisive rejection of the 'coalition for change'.

Western Cape

Although the Cape Town metro dominates the voting population of the Western Cape, it is worth noting that the ANC increased its percentage of the vote in almost all municipalities in the province. Overall, in absolute terms, the number of ANC votes increased by about 50, 000 compared to 1999. Compared to the combined DP/NNP vote in 1999, the DA failed to increase its percentages in even a single municipality.

In Cape Town and throughout the province a number of developments contributed to the good ANC results. These included the effectiveness of the ANC's election campaign, combined with successes in government delivery. The opposition vote, instead of being consolidated under the hegemony of DA, was split between the DA, the NNP and the ID. While the DA certainly netted a significant share of formerly NNP voters, the ID and the ACDP also benefited.

Turnout in the urban coloured community was very low; a large proportion of former NNP voters may have deserted the party and decided not to vote. The ANC has consolidated and built upon its overwhelming majority in rural coloured constituencies, in both the Western and Northern Cape.

Immediate tasks

The results of this election confirm the correctness of ANC policies and the massive popular support that the ANC has across the country to proceed with determination and speed in changing people's lives for the better.

They confirm that South Africans have embraced the non-racial inclusivity of the ANC. The politics of antagonism and division, as represented by the DA, is receiving less and less support from South Africans.

In the immediate term, the leadership and structures of the ANC will be thanking the people for their overwhelming vote of confidence. They will return to the people to report back on what has been achieved in this election; to thank them for the confidence they have shown in the ANC; and to begin work in making the people's contract a living reality.

They will begin in earnest to put the ANC's election manifesto into practice, building on what has already been achieved and intensifying programmes already in place. The manifesto draws on the foundation built over the last ten years, and many of the plans for its implementation are already in place. At every level, work needs to be done to chart the immediate tasks ahead.

Structures will also analyse the election results in detail to identify areas of strength and weakness, and develop organisational programmes to build on the strengths and address the weaknesses.

Most importantly, the ANC will join all South Africans in celebrating the 10th anniversary of freedom in ways which involve the people and which build a solid foundation for the next decade of democracy.

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